The giant waves called tsunamis, long known as a danger in the Pacific Ocean, may also pose a danger to the U.S. East Coast.  While stressing that there is no indication it could happen soon, a pair of scientists is warning that a slumbering volcano on the island of La Palma, off the coast of Africa, could one day give way in a massive landslide, sending waves up to 70 feet high crashing into Florida and other coastal states.

The volcano, Cumbre Vieja, last erupted in 1949. It has not shown any recent activity.  But one day a new eruption could cause an existing rift across the volcano to split open, sending a landslide crashing into the ocean, say geophysicists Steven N. Ward of the University of California at Santa Cruz and Simon Day of University College, London.

In what they said was a worst-case scenario, a wave nearly 70-feet high could strike parts of the East Coast in only nine hours. Giant waves also could slam into Africa and northeast South America.  Ward stressed that a wave that size is unlikely, and that smaller landslides would produce waves one-fourth to half that height.

"Let's not scare people," Ward said. "Certainly there is no indication that this will happen anytime soon.

"Even when there is an eruption, the probability of collapse is low," Day said. "There may be many eruptions before the volcano is finally weak enough to collapse."

Peter Lipman, a volcanologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, Calif., agreed that the threat exists from the volcano. He, too, was cautious about when such a disaster might occur.  "These oceanic island volcanoes are, in geologic time, very subject to exactly the kind of process they describe," he said. "Volcanoes try to keep on adding lava to a steep slope and eventually they get the slope so loaded that it fails.

"I don't see this as something that is likely to happen very often at La Palma," he said. "But it had a failure like this half a million years ago and will again in the future."

Ward and Day's findings are reported in the Sept. 1 issue of Geophysical Research Letters.

Tsunamis (soo-NAHM-ee), long have been known as a danger around the Pacific Ocean, where warning centers monitor the sea and alert coastal residents. They are most often generated by earthquakes or landslides under the sea and are occasionally, incorrectly, referred to as tidal waves.  The waves have not received much attention as a hazard in the Atlantic. The most recent tsunami on the East Coast occurred in 1929 when a landslide off Newfoundland created a large wave that killed 30 people in Nova Scotia, Day said.

Unlike surface waves, tsunamis reach all the way to the sea floor. In mid-ocean they may hardly be noticeable, but as they approach shore the sea floor rises and so does the wave above it, potentially rising to giant status. And they travel very fast.

The worst case scenario Ward and Day describe in their paper runs like this: Within five minutes of the collapse, a wave 1,500 feet high has zoomed 30 miles out to sea; at 10 minutes, it is down to 900 feet and slamming into nearby islands. After six or more hours, waves of 30 feet or so arrive at Newfoundland and at about nine hours, the East Coast of the United States is hit by waves ranging from 30 feet to 70 feet.

Bayside Prophecies

The sea just pounding in over and washing down the buildings...
Veronica - And oh, my goodness! Oh, my goodness! I see water is rising very high over the sides of the land and the houses. Oh! It's like, like the sea just pounding in over and washing down the buildings. Oh! Now Our Lady is coming down and pointing up. I can still see the buildings that have been torn down, and I see people. They're very frightened; they're running in every direction.
    Our Lady - "My child, it is truly a sad scene that I must show you."
    Veronica - Now I see a lot of people lying on the ground, and I know they're dead. And now there are people trying to dig trenches, but there are so many they can't bury them. And now there's - Our Lady says:
    Our Lady - "Look, My child."
    Veronica - Oh, my goodness! There's a horse, a man and a horse, but there's a light shining upon them and it's all green. "Death and Pestilence", written above their head is "Death and Pestilence." Oh, my! Oh! Oh! Blessed Mother. (11-23-74)

I see water, water rising very, very high...
Veronica - Now over on the left I see houses, beautiful houses up on a hill. But the water - I see water, water rising very, very high. The water is going twelve, thirteen, fourteen feet high. Now there - oh! It's very windy and it's very noisy, because the water is hitting the sides. 
    Now I see the houses starting to shake. And these houses are like on the edges of the water, and all the dirt now is starting to come from under them. And they're just sliding down the side...sliding down. And I hear screaming; people are screaming. (8-14-73)

I see water now covering a city...
Veronica - Now I see the water, and I see the water rising very high, very high. Oh, the waters are rising at least..oh, fourteen, fifteen feet higher than it normally would be. And they're now coming out of the shoreline, and I see them now covering a city. And the city now...the water's floating down and right where it is floating the building is falling in pieces. I can see some doors. And I see two people sitting on a door. And they're being pulled. They're trying to fight their way onto a foundation of a house. Oh. Oh. (3-24-73)

The Ball Twirling...
Veronica - Now I see this large ball again. It's cutting across the sky. Our Lady is standing. She's pointing with Her hand up, and there the ball now is rolling very fast. It seems to have no direction. It's cutting across the sky, and up and down and back, as though it's gone absolutely crazy. It's twirling in every direction. 
    Now I see a large, large rock that's being - it's falling from it now, and it's going down into the water. When it hits the water, the water is rising very high. The rock hit is as though it was like a bomb. It caused the waves to rise very, very high; and I see some ships that are carried down. This rock is sinking into what looks like an ocean. And I see three or four ships that are carried down with it. It's like a whirlpool. Oh - h. (pause) (7-1-73)

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